Oak Woodlands and Forests Fire Consortium

Fall 2025 Fire Science Webinar Series

Developing new fuel models for fire modeling of novel ecosystems in the Cross Timbers ecoregion

Tuesday, January 13, 2025 2-3pm ET

Presenter: Dr. Ryan DeSantis, Oklahoma State University

Abstract: In forests of the Cross Timbers ecoregion, an increase in eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana; ERC) has resulted in a novel fuel type with higher fuel load, different fuel architecture, and potentially increased fire risk. As a novel fuel type, ERC has not been modeled in common fire modeling programs like FlamMap or BehavePlus. We modeled test burns in mechanically treated and untreated ERC-encroached Cross Timbers forests to assess common fire modeling program capability to match observed fire behavior using a commonly used regional fuel model, best match fuel model, custom fuel model, and plant canopy inputs. All Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values suggested programs performed poorly in capturing observed flame length on a site-specific scale. The few percent-bias values that were within satisfactory performance levels suggest that at a landscape scale, the fuel model used for appropriate ERC mechanical treatments might be able to determine general fire behavior. Our model tests were intended to model fires and appropriate ERC mechanical treatments, but instead demonstrated the need for improved modeling of ERC-encroached Cross Timbers forest. This study provides valuable insight for future research and agencies that use common fire models, particularly for understanding limitations of current modeling capabilities.